Where Manchester United sit in new predicted Premier League table vs Liverpool FC, Man City and Newcastle

Manchester United have experienced a mixed start to the new Premier League season under Ruben Amorim but picked up a crucial win over Chelsea last weekend.

United had recorded their worst start to a league season in 33 years after defeat to Man City earlier in the month, but now find themselves 11th in the table, just three points behind Arsenal in second place. Although it might not be the most flattering league position, it is a pretty reasonable return of seven points from their opening five matches, in which they faced three of last season's top four.

It is also important to remember United finished 15th last season, so their defeats against Arsenal and Man City were understandable given those circumstances, though still below the expectations of the historic standards set by the club.

Another important factor to consider at this early stage of the season is where United are expected to be based on their performances so far. While it is not the most reliable metric, Opta Analyst have taken a look at where each team is expected to be in the table based on their expected points, which are calculated using match simulations based on individual shot expected goals from those matches.

Using this data, nine teams in the Premier League are performing ahead of their expected points totals, while 11 of them are underperforming. Manchester United and Man City are two of those clubs that are deemed to be performing below their predicted points tallies at the moment in time.

According to the data used, Crystal Palace should be top of the Premier League with 9.7 points from their opening five matches of the season, though they only sit fifth with 9 points due to the fact four teams have overperformed ahead of them. Arsenal are second as expected with 10 points rather than their expected tally on 9.2 and Tottenham Hotspur are the second-highest overachievers with 10 points from a predicted output of 6.7.

Remarkably, Liverpool are expected to be 6th with 8.6 points but sit at the top of the table with 15 points after a flawless start to the new season. Man City are expected to be fourth in the table with 9 points so far but actually sit in 9th with 7 points, while United are expected to be 7th with 8.5 points but are 11th with 7 instead.

In terms of the biggest underachievers, Wolves are expected to be 18th with 4.4 points but are rock-bottom having lost all five of their Premier League matches this season. Aston Villa are the side with the lowest expected points total of the season so far with just 3.2.

Expected Premier League table

1. Crystal Palace - 9.7
2. Arsenal - 9.2
3. Bournemouth - 9.2
4. Man City - 9
5. Chelsea - 8.6
6. Liverpool - 8.6
7. Manchester United - 8.5
8. Newcastle United - 8.3
9. Brighton - 7.9
10. Everton - 6.8
11. Tottenham Hotspur - 6.7
12. Brentford - 6.2
13. Sunderland - 6.1
14. Fulham - 5.8
15. Leeds United - 5.5
16. West Ham - 5.1
17. Nottingham Forest - 4.8
18. Wolves - 4.4
19. Burnley - 3.5
20. Aston Villa - 3.2