Both Manchester City and Manchester United are on track for a season to remember, according to the latest predictions.
City have enjoyed a fine start to the season so far, but they head into the World Cup break in second place, with Arsenal currently five points better off after the Sky Blues’ surprise defeat to Brentford. Even with that, Pep Guardiola’s men will be confident they can retain their title this season, given some of the performances they have managed.
As for United, they head into the break more or less par as far as the race for a top four spot goes, sitting three points behind Tottenham in fourth but with a game in hand - albeit with a significantly inferior goal difference.
But both City and United are on course to achieve their objectives for the season in spite of the current standings - according to FiveThirtyEight’s reputable prediction model. The model has City winning the title this season by three points, ending up with as many as 84 points. That would mean Guardiola’s men picking up 52 more points, an average of 2.16 points per game in their last 24 games. That’s actually below the 2.28 points per game they have managed so far.
Liverpool are expected to manage a resurgence to climb as high as third, behind Arsenal, while United are being tipped to secure fourth place with 68 points, one less than Liverpool and one more than Newcastle United in fifth. Tottenham are being backed to make up the top six, while Chelsea are tipped for a Conference League spot in seventh.
United are being backed for 68 points, which would require them to pick up 42 more points - 1.75 points per hame from their last 24 games. So far, Erik ten Hag’s men have managed an average of 1.857 points per game on average, racking up 26 in total.
At the bottom end of the table, Nottingham Forest are expected to finish bottom, and they are likely to be joined by Wolves and AFC Bournemouth, according to the model. Interestingly, Bournemouth are being tipped to go down on goal difference, with Everton also predicted to get 36 points, but with a superior goal difference by 11.
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