How Pep Guardiola’s overthinking led Man City to the pinnacle of European football

If there was one slip-up from Pep Guardiola this weekend - other than swearing on live TV - it came in his pre-match press conference the night before Manchester City’s Champions League triumph over Inter Milan.

Often keen to point to the club hierarchy, staff, and players as the reason behind City’s success, when asked on Friday how he’d accomplished so much in his career, Guardiola replied dryly: “Have good players. Have Messi in the past, have Haaland now.” Yet, just minutes later, the mask slipped and the City boss allowed a minuscule glimpse into the managerial genius which has guided the club to such new heights.

“You have to be patient. The most important thing is in these type of games when we are at 0-0 thinking that we are losing,” prophesied Guardiola. “We are not losing at 0-0 and for Italian teams at 0-0, they are thinking ‘we are winning’. They are not winning at 0-0.

“That’s why you have to be stable here and have rhythm but at the same time, be stable and, in the bad moments, step forward. It’s going to happen. Follow the plan and give us stability and the plan helps in the uncertain moments during the game.”

Of course, with levels of foresight even Marty McFly would admire, Guardiola correctly mapped out how the final in Istanbul would transpire, as City struggled to find their usual fluidity in the face of Inter’s aggression, but retained their composure and managed to eke out enough chances to win the game. There was a dollop of fortune too, another aspect of the game Guardiola referenced pre-match, with Federico Dimarco’s header, hitting Romelu Lukaku on the line, before the on-loan Chelsea striker spurned a chance from just yards out - not forgetting that Ederson save in injury-time as City held on.

But Guardiola’s prescience is nothing new and City players have previously referenced how their manager will explain ahead of time, exactly how a game will pan out. The irony, of course, is that Guardiola’s ability to predict such things and his mastery of tactics comes from his greatest weakness: overthinking.

It would be a mistake to claim this is a trait the 52-year-old doesn’t have - he’s even admitted it in the past. Yet it’s the overthinking that allowed Guardiola to so perfectly prepare his players for the complexities that Inter offered. City’s form since February also came from the  ex-Barcelona manager’s obsessive tendencies, as he tweaked, re-tweaked and then triple-tweaked his tactical set up, which resulted in a fluid back four that saw John Stones move into midfield and create an overload, at times a more direct style to Erling Haaland, and maximising the qualities of Rodri, Kevin De Bruyne, Jack Grealish, and others.

The same manic inclinations saw Guardiola in previous years dream up his striker-less system, have underlapping full-backs, use his goalkeeper as an unorthodox quarter-back and optimise the output of Raheem Sterling and Leroy Sane as inverted wingers. Simply, it’s that obsession, artistry and brilliance that has allowed City to reach the extraordinary, swashbuckling heights they’ve managed.

Few - this writer included - could ascertain why Joao Cancelo was allowed to depart in January, yet now it seems impossible to imagine how the overlapping Portugal full-back could fit into this side. The same could be said when Joe Hart, Ferran Torres, Sane, Sterling and Gabriel Jesus left, yet Guardiola, like few before him, has found a way to reinvent his side over the years. Surely, the debate now isn’t whether Guardiola’s City are the greatest side in English history, but which version?

The treble is the pinnacle of the Catalan’s achievements in English football, but five titles in six years and six domestic cup victories will also not be overlooked. Guardiola now ranks third on the all-time list of major titles won by managers of English sides - behind just Sir Alex Ferguson and Bob Paisley, while the City boss is the first to win the treble with two different teams. Then there are the countless Premier League accolades and records: most points, wins and goals in an individual campaign barely scratches the surface.

Many will point to the club’s ownership as the true reason behind City’s success and there’s no denying Guardiola has had unmatched resources at his disposal during his time in England. There’s also no questioning that state ownership is inherently bad for football, and countless City supporters will have to wrestle with the knowledge that Saturday’s Champions League success was only made possible by an abhorrent regime that has used the club as a play toy and a propaganda tool to cleanse its image to the world.

Then there’s the 115 charges, something City maintains their innocence around. That should also not be overlooked and, until proven innocent or guilty, there will always remain question marks around the foundations on which Guardiola has built his immense, sprawling house.

Nonetheless, it is worth considering that those parameters were in place prior to Guardiola’s time at City and success was not habitually guaranteed before his 2016 arrival . Since then, the ex-midfielder has reimagined the landscape of English football and raised the standards across the entire division as a result.

This season will be remembered as his greatest triumph and it’s not just that City have won the treble which is so impressive, but the style in which they’ve simply steamrolled over the competition. Arsenal couldn’t compete across 38 games, the FA Cup was collected after conceding just one goal, while monumental Champions wins over Bayern Munich and Real Madrid demonstrated just how far ahead City are from the competition. Guardiola hasn’t just won, he’s swotted the rest aside while stifling a yawn.

What next for the preeminent club and manager in world football? Guardiola has two more years left on his contract at the Etihad and few can imagine him extending that, despite the appreciation from the City manager that never again will he work under such idyllic circumstances, which have been orchestrated for his approval.

There are more records to be broken - like winning four titles in a row for the first time in English football. There’s also a first Club World Cup to win, in what will be another marathon campaign. There are players to develop, Rico Lewis, Cole Palmer and Julian Alvarez at the head of the list, while there are more tactical innovations to uncover and develop.

And for the manager who wants to demonstrate he truly is the greatest, there’s another Champions League up for grabs, of course. Let’s just hope he doesn’t overthink it again…