Why Manchester deserves new rail route to London Euston - breathing life into one part of the city

They are also a huge opportunity for Manchester to further boost its inward investment appeal as they will restore direct London trains to Manchester Victoria after a 24-year gap.

The new proposals are to bring high speed train competition to the West Coast Main Line (WCML), between London Euston, Warrington, Newton-le-Willows, Eccles, Manchester Victoria and Rochdale.  The plans, from LUMO trains, would bring a direct London connection to Manchester Victoria and Rochdale for the first time since 2000 and with a stop at Eccles the new trains would also put Salford MediaCity very close to a fast and direct rail link with London. 

For a generation there has been hugely successful high speed train competition on the routes between London King’s Cross, Yorkshire and the North East – but not between London and the North West.  Today four intercity train operators (LUMO, Hull Trains, Grand Central and LNER) compete for passengers on the East Coast Main Line (ECML).  Services are busy, very popular and fares are comparatively low.  Why has this successful model, so far, not been allowed on the WCML between London Euston and Greater Manchester?  I first called for this model on the WCML in a policy paper for the government a decade ago.

The new proposals would see LUMO run six return services a day delivering new connectivity to this underserved route, boost Manchester's economy and deliver modal shift.  LUMO already runs popular (96% passenger satisfaction) trains on the other side of the Pennines.  Their London King’s Cross – Newcastle – Edinburgh trains compete with other fast services on the ECML.  They are an ‘open access’ operator which means they receive no government money and survive on selling tickets and attracting more passengers to their services.  They compete with the Government run operator LNER and other ‘open access’ firms.

Importantly, the proposed new London – Manchester Victoria – Rochdale services can also have a huge impact on fares.  Manchester and Doncaster are almost the same distance from London - albeit on different main lines (WCML v ECML).  The average off-peak available fare from Doncaster to London tomorrow between 10 and 11am - on average - is just £41 - the passenger can choose from three train firms (LNER, Hull Trains and Grand Central). The comparative fare from Manchester Piccadilly to London Euston, where there is just one monopoly operator (Avanti) is on average £65.  

If the green light is given the new LUMO services could be up and running by 2027 and would compete with the new nationalised Great British Railways (GBR) rail service which will replace Avanti, according to the new government’s plans.   

Currently a million people come through Manchester Victoria from the north, east and west of the city to reach London-bound trains at Piccadilly. But passengers either need to walk, get the tram, bus or cab from Victoria to Piccadilly.  The new proposed services will bring direct London trains through to the underused Victoria and breathe new life into this architectural gem and part of Manchester. The trudge to Piccadilly will no longer be needed.  They will also provide Rochdale with an invaluable link with the capital and boost its regeneration potential.

A key challenge for transport ministers and their new plans for the railways is getting more people on trains and out of cars.  This will only happen if the trains are better, reach more places and the fares are competitive.  New economic analysis shows that direct transport connections deliver hundreds of millions in extra benefits.  They do more for inward investment and so called 'levelling up' than a host of poorly targeted Whitehall schemes.

More people will use rail if they feel the service is value for money, fast, direct and reliable.  Studies show that when people have to change trains this reduces demand by 50% and they might instead choose the plane, car or coach.  These new train plans will boost connectivity, inward investment and make the city more attractive to any business looking for fast, reliable and green transport connections.  Greater Manchester’s civic, political and business leaders should push hard for their swift approval by the rail regulator.

Tony Lodge is Research Fellow at the Centre for Policy Studies and author of 'Rail's Second Chance - putting competition back on track'.