Omicron: how the Covid-19 variant is affecting Greater Manchester’s hospitals and staff levels

The Omicron variant currently means Greater Manchester’s hospitals are facing an uncertain picture, the city-region’s elected mayor Andy Burnham has said.

There are concerns about staff absence levels across the city-region’s NHS, with around one in 10 hospital employees currently thought to be off work.

Authorities in Greater Manchester are also keeping an eye on the situation in London, where potential hospital pressures are causing a great deal of concern.

Mr Burnham warned that much is still not known about how Omicron will affect hospitals and cautioned against speculating too much at his media briefing on Tuesday (21 December).

How is Omicron affecting staffing levels in Greater Manchester hospitals?

Mr Burnham told the press on Tuesday afternoon that it is thought NHS staffing absence levels in the city-region are currently around 10 per cent.

This figure has remained relatively stable for a period of time now, the mayor said.

A close eye is also being kept on the situation in the capital city, where it has been suggested that by the New Year some one in three hospital staff could be off work.

Mr Burnham said: “We have concerns about the continuity of public services, given the relatively high levels of absences due to illness or self-isolation.

“This is a significant pre-occupation for the Greater Manchester system right now.

“We haven’t yet experienced the full effects of the Omicron wave, it’s just starting. The impact on our hospitals is still not fully known.

“A huge amount of collaboration and effort is going on between councils and different public services to support each other.”

Data analysed by our sister title NationalWorld showed that Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust had an average of 352 staff off work due to Covid-19 in the week between 6 December and 12 December.

The highest figure for the Trust was on the final day of that period, with 387 absences.

Bolton NHS Foundation Trust had a weekly average of 76 absences and its highest daily total was 89 on 12 December.

Dozens of staff were also absent from work at Stockport NHS Foundation Trust, with a weekly average of 73.

Mr Burnham said staff absence levels currently vary widely across the city-region’s public services, from around seven per cent for Greater Manchester Police to about 15% for employees on the Metrolink tram system.

Is Omicron affecting patient admission levels in Greater Manchester?

The latest figures shared at Mr Burnham’s media conference showed a slight increase in patients being admitted to Greater Manchester’s hospitals with a confirmed case of Covid-19, in the 14 days previously, from 121 in the week up to 12 December to 126 in the week up to 19 December.

In the same time period in-patient diagnoses rose from 146 to 193.

There was a slight decrease in the number of Covid-19 patients occupying critical care or high-dependency unit beds, but overall the number of people in hospital with the novel coronavirus rose.

Altogether Greater Manchester’s hospitals are running at around 88% bed occupancy, having been over 90% a few weeks back.

What did Mr Burnham say about Omicron and the NHS?

Mr Burnham urged caution over the figures, saying it was still very early to try to judge how the Omicron variant will impact the city-region’s hospitals.

He said: “We’ve seen the rise in cases this week but we would expect there to be a lag in terms of that feeding through to hospitals of around two weeks or so. That has been the pattern throughout.

“We don’t yet know what the rise in cases will mean for hospital admissions. That’s very much where the national debate is at at this moment in time.

“It’s not yet clear to what extent Omicron is leading to hospitalisations, we’re in a difficult position.

“We’re seeing that increase in cases that experts said we would see, with the doubling rate and the R rate, and we are seeing a high rate of spread. We just don’t know at this stage how this wave will play out.”

However, Mr Burnham did say he thinks the city-region is in a different position to earlier in the pandemic due to the vaccine roll-out and the success of the booster programme, which has given out more than one million doses.