The Man Utd transfer decision that could prove crucial in final week of the January window

There’s a widely held opinion in football that doing transfer business in January is rarely the optimal move.

With limited time to find replacements, clubs often hike up prices for star assets and the buying team tends to overpay. Therefore, short-term loans can be the most suitable mid-season transaction between clubs, pushing any major decisions into the summer.

It’s an approach Manchester United are familiar with having brought in three loan signings last year. Jack Butland arrived from Crystal Palace to replace the departing Martin Dubravka, and Wout Weghorst essentially filled the void created by Cristiano Ronaldo’s mid-season exit.

Marcel Sabitzer completed the set on deadline day when he joined on a short-term deal from Bayern Munich. It was a move few saw coming and in months’ worth of transfer reports and rumours, the Austrian’s name was scarcely mentioned. But United had to act fast in the final hours of January 2023, a month which saw midfielders Scott McTominay, Christian Eriksen and Donny van de Beek pick up injuries.

It was far from a methodical and clinical plan from United; they were desperate and urgently needed a passable midfield option to help navigate a fixture-heavy end to the campaign. While the overall strategy can - and should - be questioned, the prompt move for Sabitzer made sense.

That United may not be able to employ the same approach this season is alarming.

Financial unease at Old Trafford

United approached this January knowing the primary object was to reduce costs, not incur more. Eight players have so far departed on loan, with Mateo Mejia joining Sevilla in a permanent deal and Sergio Reguilon returning to parent club Tottenham Hotspur.

The Red Devils knew ahead of the month that they’d ideally like to add a centre-back and striker to their ranks, but felt it was a tall order given the club’s financial picture. United are wary of the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) and are believed to be skating perilously close to the cut off mark in terms of maximum permitted losses. Last week’s figures confirming a £25.8 loss for the three-month period ending on 30 September 2023 haven’t helped either.

The club also recorded a loss of £28.7m for the 2022/23 season, despite posting a record revenue of £648.4m. That speaks to the club’s financial mismanagement in recent years, as does the Glazers’ decision to explore ‘strategic alternatives’, a path that ultimately led to Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s imminent arrival.

For now, it means that even tentatively dipping their toe into the loan market could leave United’s accountants reeling. But, like last January, it’s an option that may feel like a necessity to some inside Old Trafford.

If United had previously felt the priority was a striker, the news that Anthony Martial will remain out of action for around 10 weeks only exacerbates the situation. The club confirmed on Wednesday that the Frenchman has undergone surgery on a groin issue and won’t be back until around April.

It will most likely be another club - probably one based in the Middle East - who will benefit from that operation, but in the meantime it leaves United with one recognised striker: Rasmus Hojlund.

An important end to the transfer window

With a smaller fixture load in the second half of the season and Hojlund appearing to finally have found his feet in the Premier League, there may be a sense that United could soldier on until the end of the campaign. Conversely, an injury to the young Dane would leave United in an even more precarious position as they hunt down an unlikely Champions League place between now and May.

But the club’s stance is clear and, at present, no arrivals are expected this window. There’s an irony in this given United have been criticised for their short-term thinking in regards to strikers - Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Odion Ighalo, Edinson Cavani, Ronaldo and Weghorst are five of the seven centre-forwards signed since 2017. None of that quintet managed to amass 60 appearances for the club.

But that’s the sort of alternative United need now, and an inability to recruit in this area would speak volumes for the club’s plight. Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting has his admirers at Old Trafford, but an on-loan Bayern stopgap might not be an option this window. 

Sir Jim Ratcliffe could prove to be the white knight that fans have longed for, but he has his work cut out. The final week of the window might prove just how concerning the financial picture is.

January may not be the optimal window for transfers, but the inability to afford a short-term solution is even less desirable.