They say the Premier League table never lies. Thankfully, for Manchester United fans, even their record-low eighth place finish is a lot better looking than the expected points table had them placed.
Erik ten Hag won't worry too much about what underlying stats expected his side to do this season, the reality is they finished eighth and must win the FA Cup if they are to play in the Europa League next season.
United were ravaged by injury throughout the campaign, and while it was certainly a contributing factor to their disappointing campaign, it sometimes felt like a convenient excuse, that overlooked their tactical shortcomings and poor performances on the pitch.
What might alarm some United supporters, is that according to the expected points table from understat, United would typically have been expected to have finished in 15th this season, based on their expected goals and goals against across the campaign.
By the same metrics, Man City and Arsenal would still have battled it out for the Premier League title and all of Burnley, Luton Town and Sheffield United would still have been relegated. So perhaps it is a fairer reflection than it might seem at first.
Here is what the final 2023/24 expected points Premier League table looked like:
5. 16 - West Ham United (actual finish 9th)
Expected points: 41.28 (actual 52) | Getty Images Photo: Getty Images
6. 15 - Manchester United (actual finish 8th)
Expected points: 44.42 (actual 60) | Getty Images Photo: Getty Images
7. 14 - Fulham (actual finish 14th)
Expected points: 44.99 (actual 47) | Getty Images Photo: Getty Images
8. 13 - Nottingham Forest (actual finish 17th)
Expected points: 50.17 (actual 32) | Getty Images Photo: Getty Images