Man City v Man Utd: Red Devils top of Premier League xG charts as Ruben Amorim improvement clear
Man Utd sit above Man City in the Premier League, but who has been playing the better football - on paper?
The only statistic that truly matters in football is the one just after ten to five on a Saturday afternoon when the referee blows for full-time.
Obviously, football is now a seven days a week sport and 3pm is almost a rarity in terms of kick-off time in the modern game for those playing in European competition. On this occasion, Ruben Amorim will be hoping that he is a happy man at about half past six on Sunday evening with a trip across the city to the Etihad Stadium next on a league fixture list that has been far from kind.
Man City v Man Utd: The statistics behind the derby
City haven’t exactly hit top gear yet though and with most of their players away on international duty, there is an opportunity for Manchester United to paint the town red. What should give the Red Devils boss cause for optimism, is that the underlying numbers suggest that United are on the right tracks. At both ends of the park there is enough to be encouraged about, here we take a closer look, thanks to Opta. Like it or loathe it, expected goals – xG – is here to stay.
On its own merit it doesn’t mean a great deal, however, over a longer period of time it can paint a picture of how a team is performing. In a one-off game, it can explain whether on not the 20 attempts at goal were actually any sort of a threat or merely speculative long-range efforts. After all, five attempts at goal from the edge of the six-yard box will cause more alarm than 25 from 30 yards out.
After three games United sit at the top of the Premier League xG table with 6.78 but have only scored four goals. For context, this is nearly double Liverpool’s tally, however, their forward line has hit the ground running this season and scored eight goals already, overperforming their xG. Over the course of a season, this isn’t sustainable at their current rate. Man City are currently on 5.84 which suggests that United have been creating better chances than their city rivals.
In terms of shots against, United are third on the table with 28 conceded whilst City are 11th on 35. In terms of xG, both sides have conceded roughly what they should have sitting slightly above and below four in total. For shots on target, United have allowed only 10 whilst City’s tally is five higher. There could be opportunities for United, if they have their shooting boots on.
What Amorim has said about performances this season
There is a bit of tidying up to be done and the forward line needs to be more clinical but, in the manager’s own words this season. Things are starting to click with the manager happy with the performance on matchday one against Arsenal as reported by United’s official website: "We were more aggressive than last year. We sprint more. We were more brave. We let one against one all the game. We pressed high. And then with the ball, we have quality. Even when the stadium makes some sounds, we continue to play the way we play. We lost fewer balls in the build-up, compared to last year, was [where] we struggled a lot. And then the small things that we talk about in the beginning of this season, that players like [Matheus] Cunha, like Bryan [Mbeumo], in one moment can elevate the stadium. So, I think the most important thing, we were not boring.”
After drawing with Fulham, the United boss told BBC Radio 5 Live: "We want to win so badly, and that is a good feeling, that we scored a goal and everyone on the pitch was thinking, 'Let's hold onto the advantage and try to win the game'. For me, that is the moment that we have to enjoy more and push the opponent. We tried to press the opponent super high and left a lot of space. We have to grow up a lot as a team. For me, the most important thing is that during the week they were working really hard. Today, we worked really hard, and we are going to improve. The moment that changed the game was our goal." Fulham "Even when Amad is missing that goal - I love Amad, if he's giving everything.”
Bouncing back to beat Burnley, there was one thing that impressed the gaffer, via the United website: "We need to understand that we always need to be at this level of effort. Because even in the game, we played well in the beginning. I think we struggled when we changed the characteristics of the players because the match is not so perfect and you can feel the players struggle a little bit, even in the second half but the effort was always there.” In every game there has been something to work on but a lot to be positive about, the Etihad wouldn’t be a bad place for everything to click into place.