UEFA coefficient update boosts Champions League hopes for Man City, Nottingham Forest, Newcastle Utd & more

Manchester City have exited the Champions League after a 6-3 aggregate loss to Real Madrid but their hopes of securing a spot in next year’s competition have been handed an almighty boost.

Kylian Mbappe scored a hat-trick in the Spanish capital as Real Madrid made it back-to-back wins over Guardiola’s side following a dramatic 3-2 victory in the first leg in Manchester. Liverpool, - who Man City face on Sunday - Arsenal and Aston Villa remain the only English sides in the competition having secured their spot in the round of 16 by finishing in the league phase.

Other English sides remain in the Europa League and Europa Conference League with Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea competing on those fronts. This season saw the introduction of a new and expanded Champions League, with 36 sides entering the competition. That is an increase of four teams from previous seasons. Two of those extra spots are decided by UEFA’s season association coefficients.

UEFA season association coefficients and how they work

The top two countries in UEFA’s season association coefficients will be given an extra Champions League spot ahead of next season. England and Spain are the current top two, with six of seven teams from the respective nations still in European competition.

It means the Premier League is on course for a fifth Champions League spot, which comes as a boost to City in their battle for Europe next season. English clubs have collected 146.250 coefficient points this season, per UEFA’s official website, while Spanish clubs have claimed 129.750 and Italian clubs 142.500. However, each country’s points are worked out as an average based on the number of teams in Europe. England’s 146.250 is divided by seven to give them an average of 20.892 while Spain’s average is 18.535. Italy’s average is just 17.812 because they have eight teams in Europe this season.

Despite City’s exit from the Champions League, the Premier League’s hopes of earning an extra spot received a further boost as three Italian sides crashed out of the competition. Juventus lost to PSV after extra time was needed in their second leg, with Eindhoven coming out 4-3 winners, while AC Milan lost 2-1 to Feyenoord on aggregate. 2024 Europa League winners Atalanta were beaten 3-1 at home by Club Brugge to lose 5-2 over two legs. It means there are just four sides from Italy left who can add to their coefficient total compared to six for England. At this stage, a fifth Champions League spot for the Premier League is all-but guaranteed.

State of play in Premier League’s race for Europe

While City will be keen to secure a top-four finish, the likelihood of fifth spot being good enough for Champions League provides Guardiola and his side some much-needed insurance. The race for the Champions League spots is tight with just three points between City in fourth and Newcastle in seventh. Nottingham Forest are third with 47 points but sit just four points above Chelsea in sixth.

City are fourth with 44 points, Bournemouth fifth with 43 points while Chelsea are sixth on the same points with Newcastle in seventh on 41 points. Fulham and Aston Villa are both on 39 points in eighth and ninth, respectively.

On his side’s exit from Europe, Guardiola said on Wednesday night: “The best team won, they deserved it. We made good Champions league campaigns in the past, [reaching the] semi-finals and finals, but this season no. I had the feeling in the previous three [years] we were better than them, this time they have been better. They can run, can make long possessions, high pressing, dynamic movement, defend well. They deserve it. We need to learn from it. We need to accept it and move forward.”

He added: “Now we have 13 Premier League games and we will try to be here next year. We have been unbelievable and we have to try, step-by-step, to get better.”

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