Man City & Newcastle handed major Champions League boost as impact of potential Man Utd lifeline removed

Premier League champions Manchester City have been handed a huge boost in their pursuit of securing Champions League football next season.

Pep Guardiola’s side currently sit fourth in the Premier League table with 41 points from 23 matches - 15 less than the 56 points that they had accumulated at this stage 12 months ago.

Defeats to Bournemouth, Brighton, Tottenham and Liverpool in consecutive matches were followed by another run of demoralising defeats at the turn of the year against Manchester United and Aston Villa, in a period which marked Guardiola’s worst ever run of form in his 18-year career in professional management.

The Sky Blues’ existing points tally is the worst at this stage of the season since the Spaniard arrived and the lowest since the first half of the 2009/10 season when Mark Hughes was replaced by Roberto Mancini midseason.

However, a recent turnaround of form, and victories against the likes of Leicester City, West Ham, Ipswich Town and Chelsea have given City fans renewed confidence in their chances of competing in Europe’s elite competition next season despite strong competition from Newcastle United, Nottingham Forest, Chelsea and in-form Bournemouth.

Manchester City receive major Champions League qualification boost

As it stands, English Premier League clubs lead the coefficient table, meaning they have the most points and highest average of any nation competing in Europe this season.

This has been heavily helped by Arne Slot’s Liverpool, who have picked up a staggering seven wins from as many matches to go top of the Champions League in the inaugural year of the new eight-match league-phase format. Arsenal in third position are also through to the round-of-16 in third position after picking up 16 points from seven matches and could still pip Barcelona to second spot if they secure an away win against Girona.

Meanwhile, Aston Villa are on the cusp of joining them in the last eight as they prepare to host Celtic, but are reliant on other scorelines going in their favour if they are to secure automatic passage to the round-of-16. City have so far been underwhelming in Europe with just eight points from seven matches - and the pressure is on them to secure all three points against Club Brugge if they are to have any hopes of competing in the play-offs.

Nevertheless, based on recent figures and data from Opta, there is a 98% chance that the Premier League will earn an additional place in next season's Champions League, this means that a fifth place finish will be enough for the likes of City, Newcastle or Nottingham Forest to secure a place in Europe’s elite competition.

Potential Man Utd lifeline explained

The winners of the Europa League are granted a Champions League slot regardless of where they finish in the final league table. This gives the likes of Manchester United in 13th position and 15th placed Tottenham added incentive to perform well in Europe this season.

Under previous rules, one league could only have a maximum of five clubs in the Champions League. However, that rule has been scrapped, meaning the Premier League could have as many as six teams in Europe if England sit in the top two of the coefficient and either the Red Devils or Spurs win the Europa League. Essentially, a potential Europa League triumph for Spurs or United will not stop City getting Champions League football if they finish fifth and if a fifth spot goes to the Premier League.

As it stands, both are on course to secure an automatic position in the round-of-16 heading into the last round of fixtures as Ruben Amorim’s side travel to the Romanian capital to take on FCSB and Tottenham play host to Swedish side Elfsborg.