How Match of the Day stats prove Manchester City and Liverpool title race will go the wire

Stats analysis from Match of the Day has given a revealing insight into how little separates the two title contenders.

Manchester City and Liverpool ensured it’s still all to play for with their 2-2 draw last weekend.

It left the Sky Blues only one point above Liverpool, having lost just once in 21 games, while the Reds haven’t lost in their last 12, winning an impressive 10 on the bounce before the draw at the Etihad.

But when you add up all their points since the beginning of the 2018/2019 Premier League season, it becomes clear just how close together the two rivals sit, courtesy of a graphic recently discussed on Match of the Day.

The sides have each played 145 games since the start of the 2018/19 season, with Manchester City accumulating a total of 339 points and Liverpool just one point behind with 338.

The two sit 72 and 71 points clear of nearest rival Chelsea respectively, with MOTD pundit Jermaine Jenas describing the two as ‘so far ahead’.

“You watch those two teams, they’re so far clear of anything else that you can see,” Jenas said.

“So you look at those fixtures and they look like tough fixtures but they are so far ahead.

“You look at [the result] and you don’t know how to feel, you don’t know whether you’re looking at it and saying City missed one there or Liverpool have missed one there.

“It’s so tight, it could go either way, all i know is we were treated to an unbelievable game of football.”

Fellow pundit Alan Shearer added that the distance between them and the chasing pack is ‘frightening’.

Little separates Man City and Liverpool

Sunday’s 2-2 draw was a mirror image of the reverse fixture at Anfield in which goals from Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah were twice cancelled out by equalisers from Phil Foden and Kevin De Bruyne.

And as the current Premier League table shows a hair’s breadth between the two in terms of the stats.

Manchester City have scored 72 goals in 31 games, at a rate of 2.26 per 90 minutes, while Liverpool rank slightly higher with 79 goals at a rate of 2.55.

Guardiola’s side has been harder to score against, conceding 20 goals compared to Liverpool’s 22. Both have kept 18 clean sheets in all, which is four more than third-placed Chelsea.

And the similarities continue for Liverpool and Man City, with the two ranked almost identically for shots per 90 (18.52 vs 18.00), shots on target per 90 (6.35 vs 6.29), key passes per 90 (13.0 vs 13.4) and even nutmegs per 90, where both average 0.90.

The last metric may be irrelevant, but the microscopic differences between the two over the course of this season only amplifies the points difference over 145 games.

Each now have seven games left and if they can both continue their present form, it’s hard to see where points will be dropped.

The only realistic banana skins are the games in-between the Champions League semi-finals, with Guardiola already bemoaning injuries in the last round.

That weekend, Liverpool travel to Newcastle United while Manchester City have a trip to Elland Road to face Leeds United.

And even if it goes down to goal difference, there’s only a five goal advantage - for Liverpool, that is. Could the title really come down to goal difference? Watch and see.