Nigel Farage believes his party can break a century-long Labour hold in Denton as he visits Greater Manchester

The visit started with a rallying speech to the dozens of local campaigners who had gathered with placards to meet their leader. The by-election, in what is a Labour stronghold, was lauded as an opportunity to “make history” – and Reform thinks it stands a good chance of taking it.

Mr Farage, who promised to visit the area four or five times in the coming weeks, said: “I know this area has been Labour since 1918, since the end of the First World War, but change is in the air. I think we are the party of hope, we are also the party of realism. We recognise that Britain is broken. The others say Britain isn’t broken.”

Mr Goodwin added: “This is going to be really competitive, but we are going to make history. If we win here, we can win anywhere.”

A visit to local café Café Plus then followed, with both men enjoying a cup of coffee while passing residents stopped outside the window to give them a thumbs up and take photos. The drop-in was welcomed by café manager Leigha Manser, who told the Local Democracy Reporting Service afterwards that she was “astonished” that Mr Farage had visited the “small town”.

She added: “It was surprising for him to just come into my work and just sit down and have a coffee just like a normal person. Just sit down, have a coffee and have a chin wag.”

Miss Manser said she only found out this morning that Mr Farage would be visiting, adding she thinks he’s “a really nice gentleman” and “just one of us”. The by-election “needed to happen”, she continued, raising problems with anti-social behaviour and crime as key issues for the area.

She said: “We’ve got loads of kids getting into trouble and it’s not good for the community. Nor is it safe for the elderly. We’ve had a couple of stabbings.” The 20-year-old believes that Reform is the best party to deal with these problems.

The walkabout then proceeded to a local pub, with the short distance it took to get there punctuated by honking horns and motorists hailing Mr Farage and Mr Goodwin. What was lacking, however, was conversations with members of the public.

The last time I joined Mr Farage for a walkabout, in Leicestershire shortly before last year’s local elections, he could barely take five steps before he was stopped by locals wanting to shake his hand and have a chat. In Denton, there was none of that, with no one but campaigners approaching the leader.

Speaking to journalists inside the Red Lion, Mr Farage expressed his belief that Reform UK has “every chance” of winning the seat – a chance he believes has increased a thousandfold after Labour’s Andy Burnham was blocked from standing.

The Reform UK leader added: “We are standing for change […] We can’t promise to be miracle workers, and we wouldn’t promise to be miracle workers, but we can promise that we’ll try to prioritise the needs of local people.”

“Overwhelmingly, people who get up in the morning to an alarm clock and go to work are going to vote for us here,” he continued. “There’s no question about that. We’ve seen that just walking down the street, people shouting out of car windows and lorry windows are people who work. They’re beginning to ask themselves ‘why bother’.”

The press huddle was also an opportunity for Mr Goodwin to set out his credentials for the seat and counter accusations that he has limited links to the local area. He said: “I’ve got deep links to the area.

“My grandfather worked a few miles up the road, he worked for a steel factory. My grandmother worked for the local university, a university I went to years later as the first person in my family to go to university.

“My dad ran the NHS in Manchester. My mother worked for the NHS in Manchester for much of her life. The mother of my daughter comes from Middleton. Most of my family are deeply rooted in this area.

“I think there is something going on with the left in British politics at the moment which is fascinating. I’ve seen the Greens and Labour attacking me on this. They wouldn’t have a problem at all if I came from somewhere else in the world, but what irks them is I have deep roots in this area, I just don’t think the same as them.”

He added: “Yes, this was one of the safest Labour seats in the country, but the one thing that’s coming up time and time again is people saying ‘I’m sick to death of being ignored and taken for granted by the Labour Party’. That is the number one message that is coming up.”

He promised to put the area “back on the map” if he is elected MP and to get Westminster to pay attention to it again.