More people died in Greater Manchester in 2021 than in previous years - experts are trying to understand why

Deaths across Greater Manchester were higher in 2021 than in previous years with thousands of excess deaths recorded across the city-region’s 10 local authorities, data has shown.

ManchesterWorld has taken a local look at data analysed by our sister title NationalWorld.

It shows deaths in 2021 were higher than the average figure between 2015 and 2019 in all 10 Greater Manchester boroughs.

And there were thousands of excess deaths - fatalities above what would normally be expected - across the city-region.

Nationally experts are now studying the figures in an attempt to understand the current health trends.

What does the local data show for Greater Manchester?

The data shows that in 2021 deaths were higher than the 2015-2019 average across all 10 of Greater Manchester’s local authorities.

The highest increase was a 14.4% rise in Bury, with 2,077 deaths last year compared to an average of 1815.8 in the five-year period being compared.

There was a 13.9% increase in Bolton and rises of 11.9% in Oldham and 11.7% in Rochdale.

In numerical terms the highest number of deaths was the 3,877 recorded in Manchester.

The city centre borough also had the highest number of excess deaths, at 380.8.

All 10 boroughs recorded excess deaths in three figures last year, with the smallest number being 127.2 in Stockport.

Does Covid play a part in this?

It is possible to compare the excess deaths across the UK as a whole with the number of people who died with Covid-19 registered on the death certificate.

Last year the excess deaths total across all four nations was higher than the number of Covid-19 deaths in seven of the 12 months.

These were the seven consecutive months running from June to December.

However, for 2021 as a whole in the UK there were not more excess deaths than Covid-19 deaths.

There were excess deaths recorded in 10 of the 12 months in 2021.

So what is actually happening then?

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) told NationalWorld it is currently carrying out its own in-depth analysis of excess deaths and the factors involved, so is unable to comment on the trend at this time.

A spokesperson said: “Throughout the pandemic we have responded to the need for data with timely and robust analysis of mortality.

“We will be providing more analysis of excess deaths in England and Wales across all age groups, causes and settings, to investigate what is driving the higher numbers of deaths we have seen which are not due to Covid-19.”

At the start of the pandemic, scientists and government ministers consistently said excess deaths would be the best measure of how well the UK had weathered the crisis, as it takes into account deaths indirectly caused by Covid or the national response to it.

This could include those who died because of delayed cancer treatment, or from conditions that were not picked up because people did not go to doctors’ appointments.

The Health Foundation charity says it is complicated to try to unpick Covid deaths from excess deaths from other causes.

Covid may have caused a genuine reduction in some other kinds of deaths, such as flu, with fewer people catching viruses due to better hygiene measures.

But apparent decreases in other deaths during the pandemic, such as lung cancer, may not be genuine.

The charity said that since the risk of developing lung cancer will not have changed during the pandemic, the drop is likely to reflect how delays in diagnosis meant the true cause of death was never recorded for some people.