Why now is the perfect time for Man Utd to face Aston Villa & for Erik ten Hag to prove critics wrong

Ahead of the 2023/24 season, few sides were talked up more than Manchester United and Aston Villa.

In their own right, both were dark horses: United to challenge Manchester City for the Premier League title, and Villa to sneak into the Champions League spots. But only one side has thrived under that changing spotlight.

Not many foresaw how drastically United’s season would unravel, especially given the team that finished third last term was strengthened in the summer. But a myriad of problems have led to the team’s decline, with injuries, disciplinary issues, individual levels dropping and the uncertainty surrounding Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s protracted investment resulting in the side losing 14 of the opening 28 games.

Not all of that should be attributed to Erik ten Hag, yet the team’s ineffective tactics certainly can be. There’s no denying United have gone backwards this season and at times the Dutchman’s approach has been misguided, at best, and at worst, simply incomprehensible.

Ten Hag advocates would point to the complexities of implementing a new style in the midst of such upheaval. But Unai Emery’s immediate success at Villa highlights how quickly plans can catch on. The Spaniard took over a side in 15th when he was appointed as manager in October 2022 and instantly transformed the club’s fortunes.

More than just the upturn in results, Emery has introduced a distinct style that, while complicated and multifaceted, has been repeatedly carried out to the letter by the claret-and-blue masses. A rigid 4-4-2 out of possession and a fluid system on the ball centred around interchangeable midfielders, has resulted in a team capable of scoring every conceivable type of goal.

In contrast, too often United’s players have stepped out onto the pitch with no clear semblance of a plan or any sort of cohesion. There was shock when Ten Hag said earlier this season that his side can’t replicate the tactics of his Ajax team, while he was criticised by Jamie Carragher in November, who claimed he can’t understand what United ‘try to do’ in possession. “We still don't know what we're going to see with Manchester United,” the ex-Liverpool defender added.

Yet, the last few weeks have seen a reversal in fortunes for United and Villa, who cross swords on Sunday. The Red Devils’ returning cast have brought a renewed sense of identity to Ten Hag’s side, who have won four of the last five and scored 11 across the last three games. Suddenly, the front three of Alejandro Garnacho, Rasmus Hojlund and Marcus Rashford are firing, Kobbie Mainoo has added some control to a midfield that has lacked authority in games, and the team’s build-up play has looked more assured.

For Villa, it’s the opposite. A run of 15 home straight wins in the league came to an end in December, and they’ve now lost the last two at Villa Park. Just one win in the last five games, a spate of recent injuries and several underwhelming performances have led to supporters casting anxious glances back at the chasing pack for the Champions League places.

It’s why Sunday’s game comes at such an interesting juncture in the campaign with a disappointing United peaking and a ruthless Villa showing signs of creaking. 

A win for Villa would see them move 11 points clear of sixth-place United, while an away victory would close that gap to five with momentum suddenly in the Red Devils’ hands. Both managers haven’t exactly played down the magnitude of the game either, with Ten Hag claiming it’s a ‘final’ for his team , while Emery said Villa are playing for ‘six points’.

The ex-Arsenal boss has been United’s undoing in the past - just ask Ole Gunnar Solskjaer - and his maiden game as Villa boss saw him earn a first home league win over the Red Devils since 1995. That’s not a surprise given Ten Hag’s shocking away record against the top nine sides, and the United boss is still without a league win at the likes of Villa Park, Anfield, the Etihad and the Emirates.

It’s a pattern the 54-year-old will hope he can reverse on Sunday and Boxing Day’s Old Trafford comeback should provide a blueprint of how to deal with Villa. United targeted Emery’s high line and Garnacho, Hojlund and Rashford repeatedly sprung the offside trap. Villa, wedded to their incredible assertive defensive positions, had no answer, as was the case against Liverpool in August and twice against Newcastle United. It would be nothing short of naive to instruct an Ezri Konsa-less defence to approach Sunday’s game in the same manner. 

But despite the indifferent form over recent weeks, Villa still head into the game as favourites and for the first time in the Premier League era can legitimately consider themselves to be a better side than United. That carries the sort of weight and expectation the Villans haven’t known since their heydays of the 1980s.

It leads to a showdown where hoodoos, form guides and season narratives are there to be broken for the two clubs. Villa need to get back on track, United need to prove  the recent run isn’t a short-lived upturn. The clash at Villa Park may not determine the final Champions League places, but it could provide the decisive momentum in the hunt for the top-four run in.